The DNC must be shaking in their boots tonight. A new poll by Washington-based Mercury Analytics, headed by a democrat, found that nearly 20% of democratic voters would vote for Donald Trump. But 14% of republicans said they would vote for Hillary. Even so that six point difference is huge. That’s because that six points is actually twelve. Hillary would lose 6% and Trump would gain 6%. In other words if both candidates were at 50%, Hillary would lose 6 to be at 44% and Trump would gain 6 and be at 56%.
Wait, it gets worse. The poll didn’t count any unlikely voters. That includes voters who stayed home the last two presidential elections. None of those voters are going to rush out to the polls to vote for Hillary, but many will vote for Trump. Secondly, that 14% are likely ones who are rooting for Ted Cruz or Rino Marco Rubio. In the end many of them will vote for trump and I think I can prove it.
In all the national polls, Trump crushes both Cruz and Rubio, but in the head to head match ups against Hillary, both win by larger majorities that Trump. That makes no sense whatsoever. If it doesn’t make sense, then it’s probably not true. Before November comes around, their hurt feelings will heal and they will vote against Hillary. That might not be true if the democrats had at least one decent candidate running.
Mercury CEO Ron Howard concluded:
“We expected Trump’s first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters.”
“The challenge to Hillary if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful ‘get it done’ businessman, is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters’ minds.”